As of today, techdev52.com is no longer just the newsletter’s address. It is the new TechDev platform, and if you are a paid member, all of it is yours.

For the past year everything I publish has lived inside individual issues. The levels were in one issue, the revision in the next, the scorecard in a third, and the Gem Score board only existed in whichever issue last ran it. The platform puts all of it in one place, against live prices, and keeps it current between issues.

When I asked which piece you wanted first, the alt-opportunity page won the vote with 36%, with the forecaster and the business cycle tracker tied behind it. The alt page is here, and so is the business cycle tracker, plus a few things I decided you should not have to wait for.

This one is deliberately short and easy to read. There are no new charts and no changes to the roadmap. The levels are exactly where the October 11 brief left them. Today is a tour: what is live, how to get in, and what is coming next.

Today’s topics

• Getting In

• The Home Page

• The Roadmap

• Alt Opportunities

• The Rotation Map

• The Gem Score Board

• The Business Cycle

• What Is Coming Next

• Closing

Getting In

Membership still runs through Substack, exactly as it does today. Nothing about your subscription, your billing or these emails changes.

To open the member side of the platform, go to techdev52.com and click Member sign in. Enter the email you subscribe with, and a one-time sign-in link lands in your inbox. Click it and you are in. You stay signed in on that device for 30 days.

If the site says the email is not on the paid list, try the address you actually subscribe with on Substack. That is the most common mix-up.

One housekeeping note. The newsletter itself is moving to newsletter.techdev52.com. Every old issue link redirects on its own, so anything you have bookmarked or saved keeps working.

The Home Page

The home page is public, and it is the front door for anyone you send my way.

At the top is the latest issue with a short summary, and right under it a live strip with Bitcoin, Ethereum, ETH/BTC and tether dominance. Below that is the long-term roadmap for both majors into 2027, the same waypoints I have been publishing since the roadmap refresh in Issue #95.

The part I care about most is the record. Every short-term call since last November is on it, numbered and plotted on the actual price chart, with what happened next to each one. That includes the ones that fell short and the one that ran well past its zone. Five hits, one close, one ran past, one missed, out of eight.

I have always tried to own revisions in these pages. The record makes that permanent, and anyone can check it.

The Roadmap

This is the page I expect most of you to open first.

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Today is a quick check on the short term, refined levels on the ETF trades with the next flip getting close, and a look back at how the short term calls have played out since last November. The short version: everything is proceeding exactly as forecast.

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First, thank you to everyone who voted in the poll and sent feedback. The result was clear, and I know exactly what you want to see first. You will have it next week.

Ethereum

Last issue I said Ethereum had a little more to run, with the local top in the $2680 to $2880 zone. It ran straight into it, pushed to about $2780 on September 21, and has spent the two weeks since holding inside the zone around $2700.

Nothing about the structure has changed, and next I expect is a double top in the green zone followed by the retrace to $2100 to $2300.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin did the same thing, just with a bit more push. I had the local top at $83.5K to $85.5K. Price went a couple thousand dollars past it, to about $87K on September 23, and is back near $86K today.

I do not read that as a change in the picture. I still expect the pullback to roughly halfway up the breakout move, $70.5K to $72.5K.

The ETH ETF Trades

The swing map is proceeding exactly as planned.

1. ✅ DONE - Sell ETHU at ~$32. Ethereum inside $2680 to $2880.

2. ✅ DONE - Buy ETHD at ~$23.

3. Sell ETHD at ~$45. Ethereum back at $2100 to $2300.

4. Buy ETHU at ~$20. Where the correction should end.

5. Hold ETHU to ~$85 minimum.

Nothing on that list has moved. I will keep confirming each step here as it executes.

Next Week

The full issue lands next week with the first piece of the new platform. I will also have the updated short term charts, the status of every step on the swing map, and a fresh Gem Score board.

We got the latter. Both majors faked out to the downside on September 15 and 16, stopped at their lower bands, never expanded, and reversed. Bitcoin is back above $81K, Ethereum has printed a new high for the move above $2650, and the ETHU long from ~$13 that the compression put in question is alive and closing in on its first target.

Today I want to put that fakeout in its proper context, because it has a precedent I find very hard to ignore, then walk through Ethereum and a revised swing map for the ETF trades, and then spend real time on tether dominance, which I still believe is one of the clearest overall market signals we have and which is lining up with everything else from the short term to the macro. After that comes a deliberately quick Gem Score board, and a poll where your vote decides which piece of the new TechDev platform launches next issue.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• The Supertrend Breakout Has a Precedent

• The Fakeout, and Where the Push Ends

Ethereum

• Still on the Roadmap, Running Ahead of Schedule

• The RSI Tell for the Local Top

The Trades

• The Revised ETF Swing Map

Tether Dominance

• The Macro: A Lagging Repeat of the Dollar

• The Weekly Trendline Break

• The Daily: A Bounce Is Building

The Gem Score

• The Board

The New TechDev Platform

• Your Vote Decides What Launches Next

Closing

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Over the last few sessions I have started seeing short term signs that the local top we have been discussing for Ethereum and Bitcoin may already be in, printed at $2535 and $81.7K rather than in the zones I mapped. I do not know that yet.

What I do know is that I promised to be transparent and early on anything that could change the short term ETF trades, and the honest thing to do is to show you what I am watching before it resolves, not after.

Read more

The formal reveal of the rebuilt TechDev platform needs one more two-week cycle. I explain what it is and why it is worth the wait near the end. Next issue is the launch.

Today’s issue is a short one by design. It is a focused update on Ethereum and Bitcoin, and exactly how I am playing the short term through the Ethereum ETF trades, including a minor revision to the Ethereum extension targets.

First, a note on membership pricing:

Two weeks ago I mentioned that membership pricing would rise for new members on August 30, from $29 to $39 monthly and from $249 to $329 annually, with everyone already subscribed grandfathered at their current rate. That increase did not go through, and I want to explain why.

The reasoning for the increase was the platform: the price was moving because what membership includes was about to grow. With the platform still in development, after further thought I decided it was better to wait for its release before increasing new membership rates.

When the increase does happen, the terms I published do not change either. It applies to new members only. If you are a paid member now, monthly or annual, your rate stays what it is for as long as you remain subscribed, and the platform is included in what you already pay. Nothing about your plan moves, then or now.

Today’s topics

Ethereum

• The Final Consolidation Before the Push

The Trades

• The Swing Map, Revised

Bitcoin

• The 2023 Rhyme

Housekeeping

• The New TechDev Platform

Closing

• Patience Is the Position

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Today’s issue is heavy on Ethereum, and that is deliberate. It is where I am heavily positioned for my short-term trading, as I have disclosed along the way, and its chart is screaming macro outperformance of Bitcoin, which is exactly where the focus belongs at this point in the cycle.

So we will walk the record first, the full ledger of calls since November, then the confirmations on both majors, then the trade plan as it evolves from two trades into three, then the evidence behind the next swing, and then the argument I keep returning to: that this market is mid-cycle, not late, and 2025’s high was this cycle’s 2019.

The Gem Score board reruns near the end, kept simple and easy to read. And there is one piece of news I am deliberately holding back: the TechDev platform is being expanded into something much bigger than a newsletter, and next issue is the formal reveal. Today is the map, and the map is full.

Today’s topics

The Record

• Ethereum: The Path

• The Ledger: Every Call Since November

The Confirmation

• Ethereum: Above the Supertrend

• Bitcoin: Confirmed, With One Revision

The Trades

• The Two-Trade Scoreboard

• The Third Trade: Mapping the Swing

• Two Fractals, One Target

The Mid-Cycle Case

• Bitcoin Between the Bands: 2025 was 2019

• Dominance: The Same Signature

• Global Liquidity: Bigger Coil, Bigger Launch

The Gem Score

• The Rerun, at a Glance

• Exits and Movers

• The Cards and the Scan

What Comes Next

• The TechDev Revamp

Closing

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Bitcoin has spent the entire stretch between $62K and $66.5K, Ethereum has pressed its downtrend line repeatedly without breaking it, and if you only watched price you would call this the least interesting fortnight since the correction began.

But while the tape has gone quiet, the loudest macro signal this framework produces has started to fire behind it, and that is what today’s issue is about. The two-month copper over gold MACD has crossed positive intramonth for the first time in six years, and it is doing so while global liquidity surges to new highs into a crypto tape that spent the first half of the year falling. That combination, the cycle turning up while price looks down, is a divergence that has appeared at this exact spot in prior cycles, and it has never resolved sideways.

So today we will take the majors briefly, because they are doing precisely what they are supposed to do, then spend the issue’s real weight on the engine and the divergence, and then rerun the Gem Score board with its first full set of deltas, because I promised you the system would build its record in public and this window put that promise to work.

The token setups belong on the breakout and the forecaster overhaul still belongs on confirmation, so both of those wait a little longer.

Today’s topics

The Majors

• Ethereum: The Analog Keeps Writing the Script

• Bitcoin: The Same Structure, One Step Behind

The Engine

• The First Red Bar in Six Years

• Global Liquidity: The Back-Half Surge

The Gem Score

• The Rerun: How to Read a Quiet Board

• The Board

• The Cards

• Sectors: The Rotation Underneath

Closing

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What it is

The Gem Score is a 1 to 100 rating applied to every coin that survives a hard screening funnel, rebuilt from scratch for every issue. It is not a feeling about a chart and it is not a list of tickers I happen to like. Every point in every score traces to measurable data, which means the scores can be compared, tracked, and held accountable issue after issue.

Each name is scored across five weighted components. Divergence, worth 30 points, is the heart of the system - social attention building while price has not yet rerated, which is the entire premise of a hidden gem. Momentum, worth 25, measures how fast that attention is compounding against the coin’s own baseline rather than against the market’s noise. Breadth, worth 20, counts independent voices instead of raw posts, and it is where bot spam and single-whale engagement spikes go to die. Conviction, worth 15, reads the quality of sentiment, whether it is improving off its base and whether it holds through red days. And Tailwind, worth 10, ties each name into the sector rotation framework this newsletter already runs, so the board and the macro work stay one system.

How it is built

The funnel starts wide and ends narrow. More than 5,000 socially tracked assets get screened across eight sector lenses. Eligibility gates then remove everything that cannot honestly be called investable, meaning minimums on market cap, daily volume, and trading history, and no pure meme spam. The survivors get a month of social and price history pulled and scored, and the finalists are then verified on X itself: independent mention counts, plus a manual check of the actual accounts driving each move, their age and their reach, because a crowd of real accounts means something entirely different than a paid chorus. Where a project pays people to post, I say so. And when a coin’s social data is not trustworthy, the name is excluded and the exclusion is published rather than papered over. The debut board already did this once.

The system is also built to say no. A coin that already ran takes an automatic haircut, because a gem you are hearing about after a 36% week is no longer hidden. Spam-heavy tape gets penalized, and manufactured-looking engagement gets flagged in the open. On the debut board, seventeen names carried scores, three cleared the noise line, and fourteen did not, and that cliff is the point. The board says no fourteen times so that its yeses carry weight.

How to read the number

Scores map to bands: below 40 is noise, 40 to 54 is watchlist, 55 to 69 is candidate, 70 to 84 is a strong setup, 85 to 94 is exceptional, and 95 and above is reserved for the rare case where every component peaks at once, something I expect to see about once a cycle. The top score on the debut board is a 72.8, and that restraint is deliberate. When this board eventually prints a 90, I want the number to mean something, and the only way a number earns meaning is by refusing to inflate it.

What subscribers get

The full board is available to paid subscribers: every scored name, the component breakdowns behind each number, and the detailed write-ups on the top setups, including what the flags mean and what would strengthen or kill each one. From the next issue onward the board reruns with every score’s change printed, up or down, so the system builds its track record in public and you can judge for yourself whether it deserves your attention. Soon I intend for it to live as a standing page on techdev52.com that refreshes on the newsletter’s cadence.

The debut board is below.

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Today’s topics

The Majors

• Ethereum: The Recovery to the Line

• Bitcoin: Exiting the Box

The Roadmaps

• The Paths Through 2027

• The Confirmation Signal: One Green Flip

The Engine

• H2 2020, Not Late 2018

The Alt Ratio

• ETH/BTC: Confluence with the Engine

The Gem Score

• The Methodology

• The Board

• The Top Three

• Sector Tailwinds

Closing

The Majors

Ethereum: The Recovery to the Line

Start with the structure we have been tracking for months, because it has done everything asked of it. The chart below compares the current leg against the analogous structure nested earlier in the same corrective fractal, with the orange overlay marking the analog we have followed since spring.

Back in May, in Issue #95, this fractal called for a final leg down from roughly $2,100 into the $1400 to $1600 band, and Ethereum printed $1505 on June 6, dead in the zone. The same work called for the recovery that would follow, and that recovery has now played out as well, which brings us to the line that matters. Price is pressing the green downtrend diagonal for the fourth time, and a diagonal this mature, tested this many times, is exactly where I expect the final consolidation of a recovery to form before the breakout comes. My read from here is a pause against the line, some backing and filling while the structure gathers itself, and then the break that opens the path toward the $2800 to $3400 zone, the first waypoint on the roadmap we will get to in a moment.

Bitcoin: Exiting the Box

Bitcoin has been running the same playbook one step behind, and the chart below shows it against the same Ethereum fractal reference we used to project it.

In May the call was a breakdown from the high 70Ks into the $57K to $63K box, and Bitcoin printed $59K on June 5, inside the band, before turning. It has now nearly exited the bottoming phase entirely. Notice that Bitcoin is lagging Ethereum through this recovery, and understand that the lag is not a defect in the thesis. It is the thesis. It is the sequencing I have been positioning for all year, and it is precisely why ETH/BTC is outperforming, a point the ratio section will make structural shortly. From here I expect Bitcoin to surge into the low 70Ks and spend some time consolidating there, digest that move through another small consolidation, and then push into the 80Ks on the expansion that follows.

The Roadmaps

The Paths Through 2027

Now zoom all the way out, because this is the part I want you to sit with. The two charts below are the year-long roadmaps for Ethereum and Bitcoin that I introduced in Issue #95, drawn at the end of May while the final leg down was still unfinished. The pink paths have not been modified since. I have not redrawn them, I have not shifted a waypoint, and I do not intend to while the market keeps honoring them.

We bottomed where expected and when expected. Ethereum terminated in the $1400 to $1600 band in the end-of-June window the path called for, and Bitcoin did the same in $57K to $63K. The forward waypoints therefore stand exactly as drawn. For Ethereum, $2800 to $3400 in the September to October window, $4500 to $5000 into December and January, and $6000 to $6500 through the May to July stretch of 2027. For Bitcoin, $94K to $98K in September to October, $115K to $125K into December and January, and $140K to $160K by the middle of 2027. As I said when I drew them, this remains the conservative case, conditioned on the business cycle’s impulse running its historical ten to twelve months once it begins. When the market does exactly what the map said it would do, the correct response is not to redraw the map.

The Confirmation Signal: One Green Flip

So the bottom is in, in my strong opinion. But I want to be precise about the difference between conviction and confirmation, because you should know exactly what would graduate this call from one to the other, and it is sitting on the roadmap charts above. The signal is the 3-day Supertrend.

The 3-day Supertrend is the cleanest mid-timeframe trend filter I track. It does not catch exact lows, and it is not trying to. What it does is confirm that a trend has genuinely changed character, and its record at cycle turning points is what earns it this job: the late-2022 bear market bottom was confirmed by exactly this signal flipping green, well before most participants believed the turn was real. Both majors are still carrying red Supertrends from the correction, with the flip currently sitting at roughly $2,020 on Ethereum and roughly $71.4K on Bitcoin, and those levels will keep walking down toward price with every 3-day bar that passes. When those flips print green, and I anticipate they will on the strength that follows the consolidations described above, the bottom moves from strongly suggested to confirmed, and a few things in my own process unlock along with it. One of them is waiting for you in the closing.

The Engine

H2 2020, Not Late 2018

Underneath all of it, as always, is the business cycle, and this issue’s look at it is the most important context in the letter. Consider the chart below, the two-month copper over gold ratio multiplied by Chinese bank loan magnitude, the liquidity-weighted read of the global cycle that has framed this newsletter’s entire macro thesis.

Recall the structure, because it has held for over a decade. The composite rounds over from its top in the yellow arcs, declines into the rising diagonal, resets against it at the green dots, and then elevates toward the orange points, and that elevation phase is what has coincided with the parabolic portion of every crypto cycle in this dataset. This is the primary reason I believe we have been inside one long macro cycle since 2021 rather than a completed cycle and a fresh one. Each cycle has rhymed with its predecessor, each has run on a slower clock than the one before it, and this reset took roughly two to three times longer to reach the diagonal than either of the prior two. That dilation is the whole story of the last three years. It is why the in-between felt endless, and it is why so many people gave up on the framework right before it resolved.

The resolution is now on the chart. The composite has reset to the diagonal, printed the green dot, and turned up off the line, and the parabolic portion of the crypto cycle has historically begun from just about where we are sitting now, as the line elevates away from the green dot and climbs toward the orange. And this is the read I want you to internalize, because it changes how you should be positioned emotionally as much as financially: on this chart, our position looks far more like the second half of 2020 than the end of 2018. The bottom is behind us, the elevation is beginning, and the impulse is ahead. For those who want to watch it live rather than wait two weeks for my next update, I am including access to the live business cycle chart here, available to members:

Live TradingView chart links are for paid subscribers.

View Live TradingView Link

The Alt Ratio

ETH/BTC: Confluence with the Engine

If the engine says second half of 2020, the ratio chart says it louder, and if you take one thing from this issue, take this chart.

Read it carefully. The yellow diagonal downtrend lines defined the long decline. Beneath them the ratio carved out a flag, retraced down to the 0.382, and held it, and it is now pressing the upper boundary of that flag while the MACD in the lower panel rises and curls off the bottom, getting ready to send it positive. Now look left at the last cycle, because this is not a loose resemblance. The identical sequence printed in the second half of 2020, the same diagonals, the same flag, the same 0.382 hold, the same MACD curl, and the business cycle sat in the identical position beneath it while it happened. Two independent methods stamping the same date on our position is exactly the kind of agreement this newsletter is built to find. Last issue’s timing work pointed the rotation window toward September, and the flag is now pressing that timeline from below.

The trigger from here is unambiguous. A confirmed breakout of this flag confirms, for me, a huge leg higher in ETH/BTC, the leg that targets the purple resistance at the old highs near 0.08, and a rising ETH/BTC does not lift Ethereum alone. It is the market saying it is finally willing to move out of Bitcoin and down into risk again, and it pulls the whole curve behind it. The flag has not broken yet, and I am not front-running the trigger with the broad basket. But everything about this setup says the market is loading the same spring it loaded six years ago, which makes this the right moment to look underneath the majors at where the attention is already moving.

The Gem Score

The Methodology

I promised in Issue #96 that once the low was in hand I would take the token work sector by sector. Today I am delivering it, but not as a list of charts I happen to like. I have built a scoring system for it, the Gem Score, designed to answer one question in a repeatable way: where is real attention arriving before price has rerated? It debuts in this issue, it will be rerun and republished with every issue going forward with the score changes tracked, and over time I intend for it to live as a standing page that refreshes on the newsletter’s cadence. For now it prints here.

The funnel works like this. The full social-tracked universe, more than 5,000 assets, gets screened across eight sector lenses. Eligibility gates then remove everything that cannot honestly be called an investable gem, which means a minimum $25M market cap, a minimum $1M in daily volume, at least 90 days of trading history, and no pure meme spam. Eighteen candidates survived this issue’s screen. Each one was then scored across five weighted components.

• Divergence, worth 30 points, measures attention building while price has not yet moved, which is the entire premise of a hidden gem.

• Momentum, worth 25, measures the rate and acceleration of that attention against the coin’s own baseline.

• Breadth, worth 20, counts independent voices, unique accounts rather than raw post counts, and punishes bot spam and single-whale engagement spikes.

• Conviction, worth 15, reads the quality of sentiment, whether it is improving off its base and whether it holds through red days.

• Tailwind, worth 10, scores alignment with the sector rotation framework you already know from these pages.

Guardrails cut across all of it: a coin that has already pumped takes a Divergence haircut, spam-heavy tape takes a Breadth penalty, and manipulated-looking engagement gets flagged outright.

Two things I want to be upfront about, because a scoring system is only as credible as what it discloses. First, every finalist was cross-verified on X itself, with independent mention counts and a manual check of the actual accounts driving each move, their age, their reach, and whether they are real participants or a paid chorus. Second, one name was excluded for data quality. Celestia’s social feed is contaminated by unrelated content that shares its name, its score would have been untrustworthy, and rather than publish a bad number I am publishing the exclusion. Seventeen names carry scores this issue. The bands are simple:

• Below 40 is noise

• 40 to 54 is watchlist

• 55 to 69 is candidate

• 70 to 84 is a strong setup

• 85 to 94 is exceptional

• 95 and above is reserved for the rare case where every component peaks at once. I expect to hand out a 95 about once a cycle.

The top score this issue is a 72.8, and that calibration is deliberate. When this board eventually prints a 90, I want the number to mean something.

The Board

The Gem Score board is for paid subscribers.
Seventeen names carry scores this issue. Three cleared the noise line, and one printed the strongest early-attention signature of the debut. Paid members get the full ranked board, the name-by-name breakdowns behind every score, and the re-run each issue with changes tracked, so the system builds its record in public.

Unlock the Gem Board

Closing

So here is the whole picture. The majors bottomed where and when the roadmap said they would, the recovery is pressing its first real resistance on both charts, and the paths through 2027 stand exactly as they were drawn in Issue #95, with $2800 to $3400 on Ethereum and $94K to $98K on Bitcoin still the September to October waypoints. One signal separates conviction from confirmation, the 3-day Supertrend flipping green on both majors, the same signal that confirmed the late-2022 bottom, and the flips are walking down toward price as I write. Beneath it all, the engine and the monthly ratio agree that this is a second-half-2020 position, with the flag pressing its boundary and the MACD curling underneath it, and the breakout of that flag, whenever it prints, is the green light for the broad rotation.

My posture has not changed since Issue #96. I am long the majors through the consolidations, I am patient, and I am not yet in the broad alt basket, because that trigger belongs to the ratio flag. The Gem Score board is how I will hunt the narrow opportunities in the meantime, three names this issue, one strong, one flagged, and one waiting for its retrace, and every score reruns next issue with the changes printed, so the system earns your trust, or loses it, in public. And one promise made concrete: the portfolio forecaster overhaul I have owed you arrives once the bottom confirmation is in, tied to the same Supertrend flips described above, so the rebuilt forecaster launches on a confirmed foundation rather than a hopeful one. Last issue ended with the words we are close. We are one flip closer now.

So I am going to do something different with this issue. I am not going to re-litigate the low. Last issue did that, the structure has not changed, and redrawing the same flags one more time is not worth your inbox. The question that pays from here is not whether the rotation is coming. The question is exactly when it triggers and what leads it when it does, and almost nobody is doing the work on either one.

Two pieces answer those two questions. The first is a time-aligned read of the ETH/BTC ratio that puts an actual date on the rotation rather than a vibe. The second is the dispersion and rate-of-change tape underneath the market, which is already naming what is turning while the screens still show one red block.

Today’s topics

The Consensus

• The Bottom and the Engine

The Clock

• The Ratio Fractal: Putting a Date on the Rotation

The Tape Underneath

• Dispersion: The Menu Is Spreading

• Rate of Change: The First Mover Nobody Is Watching

Closing

• The Clock, the Menu, and What to Do Now

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I want to keep the focus tight. The short-term picture first, where the breakdown has played out into the bands and the low looks to be in. Then the engine, because the business cycle is why I trust this as the low and not a pause before something deeper. Then the altcoin setup at the top-down level, the part I have been building toward, where one idea matters above the rest: the ETH over BTC ratio and Bitcoin dominance are both setting up the way they did in 2020, right before the last rotation into alts. I am not going coin by coin yet. The token setups and the forecaster overhaul both belong on a confirmed low, not a bounce, so those wait for next issue. Today is the map.

Today’s topics

Short-Term

• Ethereum: The Second-Flag Breakdown, Complete

• Bitcoin: The Deeper Retrace, and the Low Likely In

The Engine

• The Liquidity Composite and the Spike-Off

The Alt-Market Setup

• The ETH/BTC Ratio: The 2020 Analog

• Bitcoin Dominance: The Top Repeats

• Sectors: The Market Is Not Monolithic

Closing

• Sequencing and What Comes Next

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I want to be clear about the sequencing up front, because it matters for how you read everything that follows. The final sub-leg lower is not finished yet. I still expect ETH and BTC to terminate this move lower, and as you will see in the short-term charts, I have refined the timing on that bottom.

So the roadmap I am drawing is anchored on a bottom that is still a few weeks out. That is by design. The whole point of waiting was to build this path against the structure as it confirms rather than rushing it while the breakdown was still in its early stages. We are now close enough to the bottom, with enough confirmation behind us, that I am comfortable committing to the year ahead.

Underpinning all of it is the business cycle, and I want to be honest and transparent about where my thesis carries genuine uncertainty there. So today we will move through the short-term picture, then the engine driving everything, then the two roadmaps themselves.

Today’s topics

Short-Term Updates

• Ethereum: The Second-Flag Breakdown, Unchanged

• The Swing Failure Detour: A Low-Timeframe Refinement

• Bitcoin: The Double Bottom

The Engine

• The Business Cycle and the Question of the Red Zone

The Year-Long Roadmap

• Ethereum into 2027: The Amazon Backdrop

• Bitcoin into 2027: The Cup and Handle to Six Figures

Closing

• What’s Next: Altcoins, the Ratio, and the Forecaster

Read more

Today’s issue is going to stay focused on those two confirmations and the precision they give us. There is no need to rebuild the structural thesis from scratch, the work in recent issues already did that. What I want to do here is update the final sub-leg targets now that the breakdown is in motion, then walk through three different lenses on the business cycle turn so the macro context is locked in before the next issue. Because next issue, with the business cycle finally cooperating, I am going to do what I have been promising: lay out a fresh, specific roadmap for the next year for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. I want the next two weeks to plot it carefully against the latest data.

Today’s topics

Ethereum

• The Bear Flag Breakdown Confirms

• Refined Target: 1.272 Fib Extension at $1400-1600

Bitcoin

• Same Structure, Different Retrace

• Refined Target: Trend-Based Extension at $57K-$63K

The Macro Turn

• 2M MACD: The Strongest Business Cycle Signal

• 2M RSI: Same Story, Told Differently

• 2M Composite: The Liquidity-Adjusted Version

Closing

• The Bridge to Next Issue’s Roadmap

Read more

In the meantime, today’s issue is a short, focused interlude. There is one piece of structural analysis on Ethereum that I have not yet shared in this level of detail, and it is one that I think captures everything I have been pounding the table about for months. It is a structure within a structure within a structure, a nested fractal that not only supports the projection of one more sub-leg down but also pre-defines the rapid V-shaped recovery I expect to follow. And once you see it, you can start to lay out a clean two-trade roadmap that, in my view, conservatively offers a 10x return on trading capital by the end of the year, before the parabolic phase of the macro cycle has even begun.

This is the trade picture I have been working toward for months. The window is finally opening.

Today’s topics

Ethereum

• Structure Within a Structure Within a Structure

• The Final Leg to $1400-$1600

The Two-Trade Path to 10x

• ETHD: The Conservative Re-Entry (2.5x)

• ETHU: The V-Bottom Long (4.5x)

• The Compounded Math

Closing

• Confirmation Watch & What Comes Next

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Today’s issue is a focused short-term update. I’m going to walk through the extended consolidation in both BTC and ETH, explain why I believe a breakdown is ahead despite the drawn-out timeline, review the outcome of both trades from Issue #91, and lay out one more aggressive pair of setups to capture this final move.

We’ll close with a quick look at the business cycle, which - after years of grinding along the bottom - may finally be showing signs of a decisive turn. Next issue, assuming the final leg is underway, I plan to shift gears entirely and publish a comprehensive macro piece covering long-term targets for both Bitcoin and altcoins as we position for the cycle’s real move higher.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• Extended Consolidation: The 2022 Analog Still Holds

Ethereum

• Same Structure, Same Story

Trade Review & New Setups

• BITI: Stopped Out, Re-Entering Aggressive

• ETHD: Stopped Out Again, One More At-Bat

Business Cycle

• The Turn May Finally Be Here

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Today, we’ll walk through the fine details of how this final leg is unfolding for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, review the trade ideas shared in Issue #90 and their outcomes, introduce a new Ethereum trade setup, and then zoom all the way out to the business cycle picture that underpins this entire thesis.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• Flag Confluence: Defining the Final Target

Ethereum

• Dual Confluence for ETH’s Target

Trade Review

• BITI: Surviving the Squeeze

• ETHD: Stopped Out and Re-Entering

Business Cycle

• The Longest Bottom in History

• A Bullish Divergence Unlike Anything We’ve Seen

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Today’s issue is going to be a focused, tactical update. Rather than a broad macro deep dive, I want to zero in on the short-term structure, show you exactly why I believe this final push lower is imminent, and lay out two specific trade setups for those looking to capitalize on it. This is the first time I’ve included a dedicated short-term trade section in the newsletter, and I’d like your feedback on whether this is something you’d like to see more regularly. More on that at the end.

As I’ve often reiterated, the macro thesis has not wavered. The business cycle is at its trough, the liquidity cycle has yet to produce the kind of major peak that has always coincided with Bitcoin’s cycle tops, and the structural analog to the NASDAQ trunk continues to unfold. This correction is a deviation within the trend, not a reversal of it.

Today’s topics

Bitcoin

• The Inverted View: One More Leg

• Macro Roadmap: Negative Trunk Deviation and the Liquidity Cycle

• Liquidity Lead-Lag Timing

Short-Term Trade Ideas

• BITI: Short Bitcoin Setup

• ETHD: Short Ethereum Setup

Reader Poll

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What most people think of as “the crypto cycle” - the parabolic, euphoric blowoff that ends in capitulation - is only one phase of a much larger structure. And by the metrics that have explained every single prior cycle’s behavior, that phase hasn’t even begun yet. What we’ve experienced over the past three years has been a slow, grinding advance within the early-stage phase of what I believe will be the longest and most significant cycle in Bitcoin’s history.

Today, I’m going to take a fresh look at why the data supports that view, starting with a review of the macro thesis using what I consider the most important chart in crypto. I’ll then show you why we may only be at the halfway point of this broader move, what the long-term wave structure suggests lies ahead, and why the current correction - while painful - should resolve far more violently to the upside than the 2022 bottom did.

For Ethereum, the Amazon analog continues to track with uncanny precision, and I’ll break down the short-term paths I’m watching for both BTC and ETH. Finally, I’ll discuss a practical way to position for this final leg down using inverse ETFs, for those looking to maximize capital heading into the macro bottom.

Today’s Topics

Bitcoin

• Refreshing the Macro Thesis

• We’re Only Halfway

• Wave 3 of 3: The Bigger Picture

• Liquidity’s Disconnection Should Drive a Swift Reversal

• Short-Term Structure: The Final Leg Down

Ethereum

• The Amazon Analog: Still Tracking

• Short-Term Paths for ETH and BTC

Strategy

• Playing the Downside with Inverse ETFs

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So today I’m not going to rehash the long-term case. Instead, I want to focus entirely on the short term - specifically, dissecting the most likely path to the Q1 bottom for those looking to tactically position around this final corrective leg. If you’re in Camp 1 and simply holding through, the message remains the same: stay the course. But for Camp 2 traders wanting to swing a portion of their portfolio to grow capital before reinvesting at the macro bottom, this issue is for you.

I’ve identified two primary scenarios for how this final leg plays out, along with a third invalidation scenario that would confirm the market has already bottomed. Each comes with specific levels, analog comparisons, and actionable structure across both ETH and BTC.

Today’s Topics

• Ethereum

  • The Amazon Analog: Targeting the Final Low

• Bitcoin

  • The Inverted Rising Wedge: Same Conclusion

• Short-Term Trading Structure

  • BTC Daily: The Pump Before the Drop

  • ETH Daily: Two Sub-Paths to the Bottom

• Invalidation

  • What Confirms We’ve Already Bottomed

• My Positioning

• Closing

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